Learning tool 04 · Transformation through time

Carry trade for grains

A forward premium only creates a storage opportunity when it covers finance, storage, insurance, handling and the risks of holding the physical grain.

Read about storability and forward prices
Editable book example

Does the curve pay the carry?

Build the full-carry ceiling from storage, finance and other monthly costs, then compare it with the observed forward curve.

Carry assumptions
Wheat full carry and observed forward curveThe chart compares the entered observed forward wheat values with spot and the calculated full-carry ceiling over six months.0123456
Test one month

Can the forward premium cover full carry?

Full-carry price
224.00
Difference
-7.60
Forward premium
16.40
Less storage
12.00
Less finance
6.00
Less handling
6.00
Net carry
-7.60
Full curveReview or edit all seven monthsThe month tester above is enough to complete the challenge.
Months aheadObserved forwardFull carryDifference
200.000.00
204.00-0.40
208.00-0.80
212.00-1.80
216.00-3.20
220.00-5.20
224.00-7.60
Answer explainedWhy does the result move?Open or close the model FAQ
In plain English

Contango means the forward value is above spot; it does not automatically mean storage is profitable. The entered forward curve is a current price relationship, not a prediction of future spot. Finance is simplified as a linear charge on the spot value.

The rule behind itFull carry = spot + finance + storage + insurance and handling